USC Upstate

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	344.0
Current RPI:	344
Expected SOS:	284
Current SOS:	284
Current Record:	3-25
Expected Record:	3-25
Current Conf Record:	2-13
Expected Conf Record:	2-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-13
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	328
Expected OOC SOS:	205

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-25	344.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	92-77	L	0%
11-14	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	74-65	L	0%
11-18	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	72-82	L	0%
11-24	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	N	83-74	L	0%
11-25	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	N	88-78	W	100%
11-26	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	93-74	L	0%
11-29	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	82-70	L	0%
12-2	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	87-66	L	0%
12-5	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	86-49	L	0%
12-9	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	84-69	L	0%
12-16	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	77-61	L	0%
12-20	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	116-62	L	0%
1-2	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	77-79	L	0%
1-6	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	98-87	L	0%
1-11	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	75-58	L	0%
1-13	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	87-69	L	0%
1-18	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	91-85	W	100%
1-20	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	80-100	L	0%
1-24	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	92-78	L	0%
1-27	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	80-81	L	0%
1-29	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	106-110	L	0%
2-3	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	93-69	L	0%
2-8	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	91-79	W	100%
2-10	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	71-88	L	0%
2-15	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	109-100	L	0%
2-17	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	82-70	L	0%
2-22	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	67-76	L	0%
2-26	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	96-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

USC Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against USC Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
USC Upstate	ASun	26.39	26.39	9.48	9.48	-21.39	-21.39
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	6.29	6.29	60.71	60.71	1.35	1.35
Lipscomb	ASun	4.65	4.65	66.67	66.67	1.55	1.55
Jacksonville	ASun	4.53	4.53	37.04	37.04	-1.17	-1.17
North Florida	ASun	4.52	4.52	32.14	32.14	-1.62	-1.62
Stetson	ASun	4.46	4.46	26.92	26.92	-2.06	-2.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.43	4.43	23.08	23.08	-2.38	-2.38
NJIT	ASun	4.42	4.42	38.46	38.46	-1.02	-1.02
Campbell	BSth	2.10	2.10	44.44	44.44	-0.23	-0.23
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.03	2.03	35.71	35.71	-0.58	-0.58
UNC Asheville	BSth	2.01	2.01	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.00	2.00	40.74	40.74	-0.37	-0.37
Abilene Christian	Slnd	1.97	1.97	46.15	46.15	-0.15	-0.15
Bowling Green	MAC	1.94	1.94	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
Denver	Sum	1.87	1.87	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
Kansas St.	B12	1.84	1.84	65.62	65.62	0.58	0.58
Georgia	SEC	1.81	1.81	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
UMKC	WAC	1.81	1.81	25.00	25.00	-0.91	-0.91
Creighton	BE	1.79	1.79	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Minnesota	B10	1.79	1.79	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Liberty	BSth	0.31	0.31	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.30	0.30	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.28	0.28	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
High Point	BSth	0.25	0.25	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.25	0.25	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
Radford	BSth	0.25	0.25	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.24	0.24	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
FIU	CUSA	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.67	76.67	0.09	0.09
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.16	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Wichita St.	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
UT Arlington	SB	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01